Merino Sinks Portugal 1-0 as Ronaldo's World Cup Ends

Spain are through to the World Cup 2026 quarter-finals, and they did it the hard way. In a tense, cagey Round of 16 tie on 6 July, substitute Mikel Merino struck deep into stoppage time to settle an Iberian derby that had looked destined for extra time, sending La Roja past Portugal 1-0 — and bringing the curtain down on Cristiano Ronaldo’s last World Cup.

New to the knockouts? Get your bearings with our World Cup 2026 betting guide and our knockout bracket betting breakdown.

A derby settled by the finest of margins

For 90 minutes, this was everything a knockout derby promises: cautious, physical and desperately tight. Neither Spain nor Portugal wanted to be the side that blinked first, and clear chances were rationed. Then, in the 91st minute, Merino — thrown on to change the game — did exactly that, firing home to spark scenes of relief and delight on the Spanish bench.

For Portugal, it was a cruel way to go. The cameras kept finding Ronaldo, who at 41 has carried his country through qualifying and into another tournament, only to see this campaign end without the send-off he wanted. This was, in all likelihood, his final World Cup appearance and perhaps his last in a Portugal shirt — a chapter that began in 2006 closing in Dallas.

One moment of quality from a substitute decided a game that had almost nothing between two heavyweights.

Spain, meanwhile, march on. After topping their group and grinding past a stubborn Portugal, Luis de la Fuente’s side are into the last eight, where a meeting with Belgium awaits. If you have been tracking their run — including the 4-1 revival against Saudi Arabia — you know this is a team that can raise its level when it matters.

The betting angle: knockout football rewards patience

If you backed over 2.5 goals or an early Spain blowout here, this match was a lesson in how knockout football differs from the group stage. Once the bracket begins, favourites tighten up, managers prioritise not losing, and low-scoring, late-decided ties become the norm rather than the exception.

That has clear implications for how you price the remaining rounds:

• Under markets gain value. Tense one-goal knockout games make unders and draw-no-bet on the favourite more attractive than the pre-tournament goal-fest narrative suggested.
• Live betting comes into its own. A cagey 0-0 at half-time often shifts the in-play price on the eventual winner. Our live in-play betting guide walks through how to read those moments.
• Respect the margins. A 1-0 does not mean one side dominated. Judge the next Spain match on chances created, not just the scoreline.

For the quarter-final, Spain versus Belgium is shaping up as one of the ties of the round. Before you take a price, it is worth understanding how outright and match odds move as the field narrows — our winner odds explained piece covers exactly that, and if you are still finding your feet, how betting odds work is the place to start.

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What comes next

Spain have momentum and a favourable-looking route, but Belgium — fresh off dispatching the co-hosts — will not be a soft touch. Expect another tight, tactical affair rather than an open shootout. The smart money treats these knockout rounds as a series of coin-flips where discipline, not enthusiasm, protects your bankroll.

However you play the quarter-finals, keep it fun and keep it in proportion. Set a budget before kick-off, never chase a losing bet, and remember the result is entertainment, not income. If betting ever stops feeling like a game, take a break — our responsible gambling page has tools and support that can help. Betting is strictly for players aged 18 and over.